Let’s Not Selectively Doubt Nevada’s Entrance Polls

34justice

Hillary Clinton won Nevada’s caucus last night by about 5.5 percentage points.  We don’t have official voting results by race, but polls taken before voters caucused (“entrance polls”) suggested the following demographic breakdown:

NVEntrance.png

The Clinton campaign and severaljournalists have raised questions about whether Sanders actually won the Latino vote.  They argue that Clinton “won the parts of Nevada that are most heavily Latino” and that there are also reasons to doubt the accuracy of previous polling of Latino voters in Nevada.

It’s certainly possible that the entrance polls are unreliable.  However, if that’s true, the Clinton campaign and these journalists should not make that claim selectively.  The polls actually matched the final results in Nevada incredibly well, as shown in the graph below.

NVEntranceActual.png

So if Clinton did better with Latino voters than the entrance polls suggest, she did worse with other demographic groups.  Suppose, for example, that Clinton…

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